* Q3 report due on 23 October * We cut 2025e EBITA by 3% but raise 2026e-2027e by 3-2% * Share is trading at 10-9x EBITA on 2026e-2027e Q3 expectations We expect Flow Technology to remain stable in Q3, with muted organic growth as the UK water market is transitioning into the new investment programme, AMP-8. On the other hand, we expect acquisitions to drive 16% sales and 15% EBITA growth y-o-y for the segment. For Niche Products and Solutions, we expect a muted construction market in Sweden will continue to weigh on margins, while organic growth should be slightly positive (+3%). For the group, we expect sales of SEK 929m, -27% y-o-y (1% organic, -28% M&A), and EBITA of SEK 105m, -29% y-o-y but also relatively flat organically, for a margin of 11.3% (11.5%). Estimate changes We cut our organic EBITA estimates for 2025-2027 by 3-8%, mainly as a result of a slower recovery in the installation market and in the construction-related product companies in Niche Products. The acquired unit DFS adds ~10% to our 2026–2027 estimates, which means that we still raise 2026e-2027e group EBITA by 3-2%. Back to double-digit earnings growth from 2026e We now think Vestum is at a point where it will start growing its reported EBITA again (from Q4 when we expect 11% EBITA growth y-o-y) after years of streamlining and divesting most of its service-oriented units. This year, it has acquired two product companies in the Flow Technology segment, which we expect will support total EBITA growth of 30% in 2026 for the group. While the gearing will be elevated in Q4 as a result of the recent DFS acquisition (3.8x), we expect it to fall to 2.6x in 2026 when DFS is fully integrated, allowing for more acquisitions to be made during the second half of 2026 and in 2027 to support double-digit earnings growth in 2027-2028 as well.
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