Skolon: Q4'25 momentum to also pay off in H1'26 - ABG
* We expect nearly 40% organic growth... * ...and gross margin expansion in '26e * Reiterate fair value range of SEK 30-45
ANNONS
Higher platform usage drove growth
The Q4'25 report was better than we had expected. Sales increased by ~75% y-o-y, mainly driven by higher platform usage among users. In constant currency terms, the y-o-y growth was 86%. A large contributor to the growth was increased platform usage, i.e. users consuming more digital learning materials (revenue from partners). This meant that ARPPU also grew sequentially, but that the gross margin (less capitalised costs) of 26% took a small hit. This was also partly due to contract signings seemingly being tilted toward the end of the year.
Raising EBITDA by 4-2% for '26e-'27e
We raise '26e-'27e sales by 4-3% after the report. We also raise our EBITDA estimates by 4-2% for the same period. This reflects the continued user growth, slightly higher ARPPU and continued investments in the business. However, it also reflects a somewhat lower gross margin than we had previously forecast because users seem to increasingly be using third-party apps through Skolon's platform.
Implied valuation
Based on our revised estimates, the company is trading at '26e-'27e 7-5x EV/Gross profit (GP less capitalised work). We continue to see clear scalability in the model, as the platform supports additional users in existing geographies without significant cost increases. Even though EBITDA may be volatile from time to time due to growth investments and the timing of contract signings, the earnings power potential is significant over longer time horizons.
