Ogunsen: Set to grow once the market improves - ABG

* Comps to become easier in '26e * Cutting '25e-'27e adj. EBIT by 23-10% * 7-6x EV/EBIT '26e-'27e Market headwinds persist Ogunsen reported sales of SEK 112m, a 6% y-o-y decline (4% below ABGSCe). Consulting services' sales declined by 4% y-o-y, while recruitment services saw a drop of 25% y-o-y, reflecting the ongoing headwinds in the market. Adj. EBIT came in at SEK 3m (-3m vs. ABGSCe), corresponding to an adj. EBIT margin of 3% (5%), which was 3pp below ABGSCe. The company incurred additional costs of SEK 0.3m related to workforce reduction efforts. Looking ahead, we understand that the company has chosen to retain key personnel despite the current market softness, which should ensure readiness when demand picks up. This could mean better cost efficiency when tailwinds returns, and at the same time, the company is streamlining operations through improved system tools and AI. Cutting adj. EBIT by 23-10% for '25e-'27e We cut sales estimates by 1-2% for '25e-'27e and adj. EBIT by 23-10% for the same period based on the report and on a softer market. Ogunsen is trying to balance being sufficiently resourced to meet and respond to an expected increase in demand during the autumn while also remaining as resource-efficient as possible. We believe the company will see improvemets in late H2'25 or early H1'26, when we expect the market will pick up again. '26e-'27e EV/EBIT of 7-6x On our revised estimates, Ogunsen is trading at a 7-6x EV/EBIT multiple for '26e-'27e. Ogunsen’s niche focus makes it less exposed to cyclical swings than broader staffing peers. With improved long-term positioning, the outlook looks promising as the market turns.