Ework Group: Market conditions yet to improve - ABG
* Market remains challenging; soft near-term outlook * We lower '26e-'27e adj. EBIT by 33% * 12x-10x 2026e EV/EBIT adj.
ANNONS
Weak Q4, automotive remains the main culprit
Ework's Q4 was challenging, with sales -13% y-o-y coupled with adj. EBIT of SEK 36m, down 33% y-o-y. While the latter was 9% ahead of our forecast, this was mainly due to lower costs, with sales volumes remaining poor. As we have repeatedly emphasised, the weaker market is a broad-based phenomenon. However, Ework's high exposure to the automotive sector (19% of gross profit, down from 21% in Q4'24) and an intensified competitive landscape (excess supply of consultants) have further exacerbated the situation. On a positive note, however, Norway has finally started to stabilise, and the gross margin has continued to strengthen. Furthermore, Ework has implemented additional cost-saving measures to improve profitability in 2026. These measures include SEK 18m of cost savings, which will be realised gradually throughout 2026. This includes halving the size of the management team, partly in an attempt to improve sales efforts and move closer to the customer by simplifying the organisation. Given the targeted areas for cost reductions, we welcome the savings.
No clear signs of near-term recovery
Given Q4 orders -14% y-o-y (vs. -7% y-o-y in Q3), the outlook for 2026 is poor, and we see no clear signs of an imminent recovery. Consequently, we lower '26e-'27e sales forecasts by 16-18%, resulting in a 33% cut to the corresponding adj. EBIT figures. We now expect 2026 sales to decrease by 14% y-o-y, and EPS by -16% y-o-y (vs. Ework's guidance of 2026 EPS down 10-20% y-o-y), despite easy comps.
12x-10x '26e-'27e EV/EBIT adj.
The share is trading at 12x-10x '26e-'27e EV/EBIT adj. (vs. peers at 12x-8x), which is largely in line with its 10Y avg. of ~12x. The balance sheet remains in good shape and cost control is decent, but volumes need to improve for profits to return to growth.
