Cavotec: Expect a gradual recovery but caution remains - ABG
* Q4e: Sales of EUR 37m (45m), EBIT of EUR 0.7m (3.6m) * Expect continued profitability improvements in Industry * Trading at '26e-'27e EV/EBIT of 19x-11x
ANNONS
Q4 expectations
Cavotec is facing tough comps as Q4'24 was a particularly strong quarter. We expect Q4 sales of EUR 37m (45m), -18% y-o-y, +3.5% q-o-q. For P&M we estimate sales of EUR 21m (30m) and for Industry, sales of EUR 16m (16m). During the quarter, Cavotec announced several orders, including a EUR 9.35m shore power order and a EUR 2m MoorMaster system in Denmark, together accounting for ~9% of the Q3'25 order backlog. Alongside this, the company announced a motorised cable reed order in Morocco (undisclosed value, delivery expected mid-'26). We estimate Q4 order intake at ~EUR 48m (vs. EUR 61.5m in Q4'24). On EBIT, we estimate EUR 0.7m (3.6m), for a margin of 1.9% (7.9%). We expect Industry to continue to improve its profitability (we estimate an EBITDA margin of 14.5% vs. 6.7% LY) due to cost savings and efficiency measures implemented in 2024.
Estimate changes and outlook
We lower ’26e-’27e sales by 2% and total '26e-'27e EBIT by EUR 3m ahead of the Q4 report. We think customer uncertainty will remain in the short term, impacting sales. We expect P&M to be the key swing factor in '26e, with management highlighting in Q3 that most of the larger P&M orders won in '25 will not be delivered until '26.
Valuation
While we think FY'25 will likely be a softer year compared to FY'24, we continue to find the longer-term potential in shore power and industrial electrification appealing, supported by regulatory tailwinds and structural megatrends. The share is trading at 19x-11x EV/EBIT in '26e-'27e vs. peers at 14x-13x.
