BTS Group: Organic growth momentum to be sustained - ABG
* We estimate 5-9% organic growth trend to continue in H2e * Guidance upgrade was needed to meet earnings estimates * EBITA -2% 2026e, +2% 2027e-28e, share at 10.8x EV/EBITA 2026e
ANNONS
A solid Q2 report improves confidence
The guidance upgrade to "significantly better 2026 EBITA than 2025" was needed to meet our estimates, as we had already expected >20% EBITA growth. However, it was encouraging to see 9% organic growth, the highest figure in almost four years, and a clear sign that BTS can also grow significantly in an AI environment as there have been fears around consultants' ability to compete with AI technology. Recovering the slow start to the year in Other markets was also somewhat ahead of our expectations in Q2, and we now expect to see positive organic growth in all regions in Q3-Q4, for group figures of 5-9%. We expect to see a stabilisation in the reduction of headcount and a subsequent return to growth, as it is not sustainable to grow the business and reduce headcount for too long.
Relatively small estimate changes
On the back of the strong organic growth figure in Q2 and sales beats in all regions, we lift our sales estimates by 4% in 2026e-28e. However, due to the slight Q2 EBITA miss and somewhat lowered margin assumptions in North America, we cut 2026e EBITA by 2%, while our higher organic growth assumptions drive +2% EBITA revisions in 2027e-28e. We cut 2026e reported EPS due to the earn-out provisioned for the Boda acquisition booked in Q2 (SEK 52m).
Share at 10.8x 2026e EV/EBITA
On our updated estimates, the share is trading at 10.8x NTM EV/EBITA, which compares, for example, to Accenture at 8x but is nevertheless historically low. The balance sheet continues to look solid, and BTS could continue with its bolt-on acquisition strategy ahead, driving estimate revisions further upwards.
