The focus on Aktia’s Q1 results should be on NII, asset quality and how AUM has developed: 1) Without system volume growth and falling interest rates, we expect NII to decline by 4% from Q4; 2) Q4 loan loss provisions surprised negatively which is a concern given tariffs could negatively affect the macro environment; 3) falling equity markets should drive AUM down. However, Aktia has a low valuation and is defensive, in our view.
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