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5/3/2024 8:04:44 AM - OXE Marine Q1 2024: First impression - Redeye - Redeye was hoping for higher top-line growth. But Q1 is historically a slow quarter, and we don’t know how much of OXE Marines order backlog to the US Government and Philippine Coast Guard was delivered in Q1. Gross margins were better than expected and Opex were in line. We will probably lower our near-term forecast somewhat as we haven’t seen enough in terms of new orders announced.
3/4/2024 9:56:45 AM - OXE Marine: Some near-term challenges - Redeye - Redeye is now more cautious on the very near-term outlook, despite Q4 sales at a new ATH. Gross margins are currently under some pressure and will remain so, we believe, until OXE Marine’s price adjustments feed through in H2’24. On a positive note, recent deliveries to Government clients have reinforced the OXE brand, improving their chances for future business.
2/29/2024 8:24:09 AM - OXE Marine Q4 2023: Sales at ATH - Redeye - Redeye is pleased to see a major boost in sales numbers and solid gross margins in Q4, which marked a new record level for OXE Marine. Not a big surprise, since deliveries to the US Government were ramping up. We believe the company has a solid backlog for H1 2024 and we hope to see more orders being announced in the coming months. Following the Q4 report, we will probably not make any major changes to our forecasts or valuation.
12/12/2023 7:08:08 AM - OXE Marine: Capital injection - Redeye - Redeye is glad to see that OXE Marine managed to raise ~SEK30m in a directed share issue. Subscription price of SEK1.0 per share is a rather modest discount of 8%. Several existing, and a number of new investors participated in the issue, which signals firm support from shareholders. Dilution for remaining owners is less than 10%.
10/30/2023 8:41:20 AM - OXE Marine: Traction with Government customers - Redeye - Redeye remains confident on the case, following solid Q3 numbers and the two recent Government contract wins. Gross margins of 36% in Q3 and a healthy order backlog bodes well for near-term financial performance. Moreover, the sizeable order from the US Government is an important milestone, reinforcing OXE Marine’s market recognition and brand. We have made some positive adjustments to our forecasts and valuation.
10/27/2023 7:33:23 AM - OXE Marine: Impressive gross margins - Redeye - Redeye is happy to see firm top-line growth around 20%, coupled with clearly higher gross margins than expected. Q3 gross margins of 36% is a new ATH and in our view a validation of OXE Marines leverage and long-term business case. Also, Opex in Q3 appears to be lower than we anticipated, adjusted for one-off items. Following two recent wins of Governmental procurements (US and the Philippines), we will most likely raise our near-term forecasts.
10/2/2023 5:39:44 AM - OXE Marine: Record size order from the US Government - Redeye - Redeye is growing more confident on the case following last Friday’s announcement of a significant order from a US Governmental Agency. The total order value, amounting to USD5.8m, is the largest so far in company history. In our view, this is firm confirmation of OXE Marine’s products and offering and a very important step in its commercial progress with Government customers, in the US and elsewhere. As the bulk of deliveries are planned for 2023, we will raise our Q4 2023 forecasts.
9/11/2023 6:11:00 AM - OXE Marine: Major deal in the Philippines - Redeye - Redeye is happy to see that OXE Marine is awarded a new major contract for OXE300 outboards from the Philippines Coast Guard. Total potential order value is around EUR2.9m with deliveries starting in Q3’23 and running into H1’24. OXE Marine has previously delivered over 60 outboards to the Philippines Bureau of Customs. We see this new order as a solid validation of the OXE brand and their strong customer relationship with Government authorities in the Philippines. It will probably make a significant contribution to OXE marine’s sales. But we are not making any changes to our financial forecasts at this point, as we have already projected substantial near- and mid-term growth.
7/31/2023 5:29:54 AM - OXE Marine: Sales picking up - Redeye - Redeye is encouraged by the improved sales in Q2. Also, gross margins were at healthy levels of 30%, when adjusting for inventory write-downs. Q2 earnings are impacted by several cost items labeled as non-recurring, hence a significant loss. But we believe the company will improve its financial performance going forward. Our overall view remains intact, and we are basically only making changes to our near-term forecasts (2023 earning).
7/28/2023 7:02:02 AM - OXE Marine Q2 2023: Initial take - Redeye - Redeye’s estimates are basically in line with reported numbers, when adjusting for non-recurring items. OXE Marine is showing good progress in sales and underlying profitability. However, some significant, and hopefully temporary, costs impacted margins and earnings in the quarter. Regarding the outlook, management is not very detailed, but remains optimistic as OXE is gradually improving its market position. Following the Q2 report we will primarily make some near-term adjustments. Particularly relating to higher costs in 2023.
6/26/2023 5:29:31 AM - OXE Marine: Order from the US Defense - Redeye - Redeye is encouraged to see that OXE Marine has received another order from the US Defense Logistics Agency. It’s not a large order, 14 engines. But reassuring as it shows the US Navy’s continued interest in diesel outboards and OXE Marines’ products. Obviously, this customer could potentially be a major game changer for the company.
5/26/2023 9:39:10 AM - OXE Marine: Paul Frick appointed new CEO - Redeye - Redeye is rather surprised to hear about the sudden change of CEO. We thought that Anders Berg, who has been serving as OXE Marines’ Chairman and most recently as CEO, would be in for the very long run. He is now handing over the baton to long-time CFO Paul Frick. Probably a good option and not too dramatic, since Paul has been deeply involved in the business for several years.
5/4/2023 5:35:18 AM - OXE Marine: Soft Q1 but good chances for a pickup - Redeye - Redeye expected a stronger Q1 performance indeed. Warranty issues still haunted the company and sales in the Propulsion segment were again rather mediocre. We believe the situation is now back to normal and the outlook in terms of market demand appears solid. Following two soft consecutive quarters, we lower our sales forecasts somewhat.
5/2/2023 7:32:20 AM - OXE Marine Q1 2023: First impression - Redeye - Redeye expected significantly stronger Q1 numbers from OXE Marine. Apparently, the problems experienced in Q4 with warranty issues, also impacted Q1. Sales in the Propulsion segment was weak while Parts & Accessories showed continued solid growth. We will most likely lower our near-term forecasts. Partly due to the weak Q1 but also the fact that we have very limited transparency into order backlog and business activities.
2/27/2023 8:36:19 AM - OXE Marine: Air pocket in Q4 - Redeye - Redeye was hoping for a much stronger Q4 report and so did OXE Marine. Sales were weaker and costs significantly higher than expected. Most of the issues appear to be temporary and we believe OXE Marine is well underway to have them resolved. The overall market outlook remains firm, but following the unexpected air pocket in Q4 we are now a bit more cautious in our near-term forecasts.
2/24/2023 8:17:49 AM - OXE Marine Q4 2022: Surprisingly weak - Redeye - Redeye was hoping for a much stronger Q4, and so did OXE Marine too. Q4 numbers are way below expectations across the board. Sales were weaker and a couple of non-recurring cost items resulted in lower gross margins and a major operating loss for the quarter. Although Q4 was probably somewhat of an air pocket, it does raise some concern to us. On a positive note OXE Marine has made a couple of interesting new product launches lately. Moreover, management seems to address the current challenges in a constructive manner. Still, we will most likely lower our near-term forecasts.
2/16/2023 7:06:46 AM - OXE Marine: New diesel electric hybrid engine - Redeye - Redeye is quite surprised by the news that OXE Marine has developed the OXE Hybrid 450, a new diesel electric 450 horsepower outboard. Field tests with boat manufacturer Nimbus will take place during the spring and serial production is planned to start already in the second half of 2023. OXE Marine will certainly be a first mover in this segment, which we believe holds great potential. Exciting news!
12/13/2022 8:15:29 AM - Nimbus ingår avtal med Oxe Marine - Båttillverkaren Nimbus har ingått ett avtal med Oxe Marine.
11/22/2022 7:30:49 AM - OXE Marine: Directed share issue of SEK 70m - Redeye - Redeye provides a brief comment on the directed share issue, providing OXE Marine with SEK70m. Proceeds will be used to “accelerate growth and to support strategic initiatives”. We find the discount of 5.6% (to 30-day average price) to be fair, particularly given the cost-effective procedure.
11/7/2022 6:18:22 AM - OXE Marine: Expanding customer base - Redeye - Redeye remains optimistic about OXE Marine following the Q3 report. Admittedly, we expected stronger top-line growth in the quarter. But on a positive note, sales of Parts & Accessories recorded ATH and gross margins beat our estimates. We have lowered our forecasted growth trajectory as well as Opex for the coming years. We still expect a CAGR ~50% in the next few years and EBITDA to reach break-even in 2024. Our valuation is basically unchanged, with a Base case fair value around SEK 2.4 per share.
10/28/2022 8:26:09 AM - OXE Marine Q3 2022: First impression - Redeye - Redeye sees a couple of bright spots in the Q3 report, such as a new record level for sales of Parts & Accessories and a solid improvement in gross margins. Total sales were however a bit lower than we expected, probably due to disturbances in the supply chain during the summer. OXE Marine is gradually expanding its customer base and overall market conditions remain favorable. The report doesn’t really give any short-term guidance and we will most likely lower our near-term growth forecasts somewhat.
7/27/2022 6:51:53 AM - OXE Marine: Good progress and solid outlook - Redeye - Redeye views the Q2 report as confirmation that OXE Marine is making good progress. Higher sales and a growing customer base, including more repeat orders. Gross margins are weak, but for obvious reasons, and will recover during the fall. The US merger and integration has been smooth, and management is very excited about the new opportunities that lie ahead. We are making some adjustments to our forecasts, but the net impact on our valuation is insignificant.
7/22/2022 8:04:28 AM - OXE Marine Q2: Initial take - Redeye - Redeye is happy to see solid sales growth, in line with our expectations, in the second quarter. Gross margins are lower, partly due to a higher book value in the stock of engines acquired in the US merger. Gross margins are expected to improve in the second half of 2022. Management seems optimistic about market conditions in general and OXE Marine’s position and opportunities in particular. We will probably only make some minor adjustments to our forecasts.
5/6/2022 6:51:17 AM - OXE Marine: Building Momentum - Redeye - Redeye remains confident that OXE Marine is on the right track. The Q1 report showed continued growth, although not quite on the level we had hoped for. Still solid numbers, including further improvements in gross margins. Main focus during the quarter has been merging and integrating the US companies into the group to reinforce sales capacity.
5/2/2022 9:02:42 AM - OXE Marine Q1’22: First impression - Redeye - Redeye was hoping for a bit more in terms of sales given the strong growth trend during the second half of last year. OXE is however making progress and the gross margin is improving further. The report doesn’t give any real guidance in terms of customer orders or market demand. However, the company remains optimistic about the prospects for the new group. We will probably lower our near-term growth expectations somewhat.
2/21/2022 6:50:16 AM - OXE Marine: A New and Stronger OXE - Redeye - Redeye is increasingly more optimistic about OXE Marine’s future prospects, following the merger with its US distributor Diesel Outboards and Outdoor Network Manufacturing. The Q4 report shows further progress in the ramp-up and we expect continued strong growth rates going forward. We have made some positive revisions of our rating and valuation.
2/17/2022 7:08:49 AM - OXE Marine Q4’21: Initial comment - Redeye - Redeye’s expectation on Q4 results were only slightly higher than reported numbers. OXE Marine is showing strong sales growth and solid execution. However, earnings and cash flow are still in negative territory, as expected. The acquisition of US companies Diesel Outboards and Outdoor Network Manufacturing is now completed, which is basically the beginning of a new era for OXE Marine. The new company will gain access to end-users and a much stronger position in the US market. As OXE Marine's chances for success have improved, we are now growing more confident in the case and will review our financial forecasts and valuation.
1/10/2022 9:37:53 AM - OXE Marine: Transformational Acquisition - Redeye - Redeye is encouraged by the recent news of OXE Marine joining forces with its US distributor Diesel Outboards and Outdoor Network Manufacturing. OXE Marine will gain access to end-users and a much stronger position in the US, which is by far the company’s most important market. The transaction is still subject to approval from various stakeholders, but we see no reason for objections. Closing is expected to take place on 31 January.
11/2/2021 9:51:36 AM - OXE Marine: On the right track - Redeye - Redeye is happy to see increasing production rates and good prospects for a continued ramp up. Gross margins are inching up further and Opex is very well contained. Despite good progress, we’d be surprised if OXE Marine will be able to meet its financial target of positive operational cash flow in Q4. We have made some adjustments in our near-term forecasts, slower growth trajectory but also lower costs. On balance the impact on our valuation is modest. Our Base case fair value is around SEK 2.1 per share (previously: SEK 1.9).
10/29/2021 11:15:37 AM - OXE Marine Q3’21: First impression - Redeye - Redeye is encouraged to see that OXE Marine is making good progress in the third quarter. Despite some constraints in the supply of components announced earlier, sales are increasing Q/Q. Gross margins are stable and Opex lower than we expected. The ramp up continues and Q4 will probably see significant improvements in the P&L. Maybe even positive cash flow, which is one of OXE Marine’s financial targets.
9/20/2021 9:53:06 AM - OXE Marine: Directed share issue - Redeye - Redeye sees no big drama in the news announced last week. OXE Marine carried out a directed share issue of SEK ~23m to secure an intermediate need for further funding. The reason is related to constraints in the sourcing of components affecting the planned ramp-up of production. Management seems confident on being able to resolve the situation shortly and still expect a significant increase in production during Q4. Hence, we are only making short-term adjustments to our forecasts with minimum impact on valuation.
7/30/2021 12:37:56 PM - Oxe Marine: Ramp-up in Progress - Redeye - Redeye is growing somewhat more confident in the case as OXE Marine sees continued good progress in the ramp-up of production through the second half of the year. Moreover, fixed costs are well contained and clearly lower than we expected in Q2. With a solid order book on hand, 2021 is the year when OXE Marine can really prove its case. We have made some positive revisions to our forecasts and valuation, but still think the market has already discounted most of the success at this point.
7/23/2021 2:46:26 PM - Oxe Marine: Q2’21, First comment - Redeye - Redeye is encouraged by solid gross margins and clearly lower Opex than we expected. EBITDA is still in the reds, but given the anticipated ramp-up in H2, break-even should soon be within reach. We are growing more optimistic on the case, but would like to see a bit more progress before making any major changes to our forecasts and valuation.
5/7/2021 6:08:26 AM - Oxe Marine: Picking up speed in 2021 - Redeye - Redeye remains cautiously optimistic on OXE Marine as we understand that the ramp up of production is running according to plan and we expect to see a strong growth trajectory through 2021. The company’s ambition is to deliver the entire order backlog of SEK 141m in the current year. We are growing more confident in our forecasts, that imply solid growth over the next few years. We have raised our Base case fair value to SEK 1.8 per share.
4/29/2021 10:54:05 AM - Oxe Marine Q1: Initial take - Redeye - Redeye is encouraged to see the improvement in gross margins while cost items are well contained. Net sales of SEK 10m is still on a low level, but we expect to see a strong growth trajectory during the current year. OXE Marine’s ambition is to deliver its entire orderbook of SEK 141m in 2021. As far as we understand activities are running according to plan and we are now somewhat more confident in our forecasts, that imply solid growth over the next few years.