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Nyhetsflöde Aspo

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4/23/2024 5:16:16 AM - Aspo: High M&A activity could continue - Nordea - The share price has been relatively weak despite net sales and operating profit looking set to improve clearly y/y for 2024. However, Q1 could still be weak for ESL Shipping owing to severe winter ice conditions and strikes in Finland. Nevertheless, we believe there is a chance that Aspo might upgrade its full-year EBIT guidance from the current EUR 30m-plus to over EUR 33m thanks to the Petrus acquisition. Moreover, the outlook for yields in the dry bulk sector looks better than it did last year. The company will also have more capacity in 2024 once green coasters begin to arrive. Aspo could concentrate on these new ships and acquisitions in its Telko segment at its CMD on 14 May. Our unchanged fair value range of EUR 7.3-8.9 per share is based on equal weightings of our DCF, P/E and SOTP valuations. Marketing material commissioned by Aspo.
3/18/2024 4:33:02 PM - Aspo: Two Supramax vessels sold for EUR 34m - Nordea - Aspo will receive EUR 34m in cash by divesting two Supramax vessels. The company has been considering the divestment of these vessels for some time why transaction was expected to happen in near future. The deal leads to EUR 7m sales loss in Q2. Aspo’s Supramax vessels have sometimes been loss making and currently posting a small profit. Ten years ago these Supramax vessels were used for coal transportation but the need for coal in Finland has declined. Vessels were too large for Aspo’s current customer portfolio and the company will focus on Handysize and Coaster vessels in the future. The divestment money could be used for new ships, and for acquisitions in the Telko segment we believe.
3/8/2024 1:12:58 PM - Aspo: Telko is speeding up growth by acquisitions - Nordea - Aspo acquired industrial lubricants distribution businesses from Petrus. The deal opens new markets in France and in Benelux for Aspo. Acquisition price of EUR 13.7m indicates EV/EBIT valuation of 6.2x. Operations consist of premium industrial specialty and high-performance lubricants, metalworking fluids and other general industrial lubricants and is in line with the company’s strategy to grow via acquisitions in the Telko segment. Annual group level EBIT will grow by 6% via this acquisition. The Telko segment is also looking at smaller bolt-on acquisitions regardless of Petrus deal made on March 8. Separately, the company is selling two Supramax vessels, but the timing of these divestments has been uncertain. Possible divestment money could be used for new ships. Overall, 2023 was a weak year for the dry bulk sector but the overall risk/reward balance in the dry bulk sector looks more positive for 2024. But ongoing Q1 2024 could still be hard for Aspo due to tough winter conditions and strikes in ESL Shipping.
2/19/2024 10:00:12 AM - Aspo: Demand and performance stabilize - Evli - Aspo’s Q4 showed some positive trends while EBIT remained quite low. H1’24 EBIT is only beginning to improve, but ESL has a lot of improvement potential already this year.
2/19/2024 6:27:17 AM - Aspo: Earnings momentum is turning positive - Nordea - In Q4, ESL Shipping reported net sales and EBIT above consensus (LSEG), while Telko and Leipurin segments came in below. The dividend proposal of EUR 0.47 was in line with consensus expectations. Full-year clean EBIT is guided to over EUR 30m, which could lead market consensus of EUR 31.8m to be upgraded by a few percentage points. Our new EBIT forecast for 2024 is 9% above consensus. Our long-term estimates still point to a fair value range of EUR 7.3-8.9 per share, based on an equal weighting of our DCF, P/E and SOTP valuations. A clear improvement in relative profitability could still take time, and so we do not expect the long-term EBIT margin target of 8% to be upgraded at the company's next CMD on 14 May. Marketing material commissioned by Aspo.
2/16/2024 8:38:38 AM - Aspo: Still soft, but improving - Evli - Aspo’s Q4 figures came in soft relative to estimates as all three segments missed profitability estimates.
2/16/2024 8:06:11 AM - Aspo: Q4 slightly below consensus, FY EBIT guided to over EUR 30m - Nordea - Net sales and clean EBIT were below market consensus (LSEG) in Q4 but ESL Shipping segment were slightly above consensus in Q4. Last year was a weak year for Aspo and Q1 2024 could still be seasonally weak due to tough winter conditions and strikes. However, full year 2024 guidance of over 30m adjusted EBIT could lead market consensus to be upgraded by 3-6% we believe. Dividend proposal of EUR 0.47 was in line with consensus. Aspo has now sold 21.4% of its in ESL Shipping segment and the company has a CMD event on May 14 where it will highlight the growth strategy.
2/2/2024 6:12:37 AM - Aspo: 2024 dry bulk sector pricing could improve - Nordea - 2023 was a weak year for the dry bulk sector, reflected in ESL Shipping's clean EBIT declining by 50% y/y. Demand for steel, pulp and construction materials was not strong. Looking ahead, Q1 could still be seasonally weak, but the overall risk/reward balance in the dry bulk sector looks more positive for 2024. Record-low supply could support pricing in the sector for this year. We forecast group-level 2024 EBIT guidance at over EUR 30m (LSEG Data & Analytics consensus: EUR 31m). Our fair value range of EUR 7.3-8.9 per share is based on equal weightings of our DCF, P/E and SOTP valuations. Marketing material commissioned by Aspo.
11/9/2023 6:16:24 AM - Aspo: A minority stake (15.4%) of ESL Shipping was sold for EUR 30m - Nordea - Aspo sells 15.4% of its ESL Shipping segment for EUR 30m to OP Suomi Infra Ky. Some divestments in the ESL Shipping segment has been expected to happen in this year. The company could also try to sell two Supramax vessels but the timing of these transactions has been uncertain. Aspo could invest more than EUR 150m in new vessels in the coming years why money and other financing instruments are needed. By assuming EUR 25m underlying sustainable EBIT for ESL Shipping segment, the transaction indicates EV/EBIT valuation of 12x for the segment. We have used EV/EBIT 9-10x for ESL Shipping segment in our SOTP calculation. For next year we have forecasted EUR 36m EBIT in a group level of which EUR 24m is related to ESL Shipping segment. Net debt was EUR 153m in a group level in September and even EUR 183m when including EUR 30m hybrid. Some EUR 135m of debt is allocated to ESL Shipping segment. So, the divestment price leaves EUR 56m enterprise value (inc. hybrid loan) for other business areas where combined EBIT could be EUR 12m in 2024, giving EV/EBIT of 5x for other segments combined.
11/2/2023 7:52:11 AM - Aspo: Improving in stabilizing markets - Evli - Aspo’s Q3 results delivered a positive surprise due to Telko. ESL’s recovery pace for next year remains a bit uncertain, but in our view all three segments have room to improve.
11/2/2023 6:13:13 AM - Aspo: Telko and Leipurin better than consensus in Q3 - Nordea - In Q3, Aspo reported net sales below consensus (Refinitiv), while adjusted EBIT came in above. The company downgraded the midpoint of its full-year EBIT guidance by 8%, but we believe that consensus EBIT could be upgraded by EUR 1-3m following the Q3 earnings announcement, because consensus was already at the lower end of the stated guidance range. Volume development in the ESL Shipping segment could remain weak in Q4 2023, which may hinder the potential for any major earnings improvement in the near future. Our long-term estimates still point to a fair value range of EUR 7.3-8.9 per share, based on an equal weighting of our DCF, P/E and SOTP valuations. Marketing material commissioned by Aspo.
11/1/2023 8:53:38 AM - Aspo: Q3 above consensus, FY guidance midpoint downgraded - Nordea - The biggest positive surprise in Aspo’s Q3 result was profitability in Telko segment. Furthermore, Leipurin segment reported better revenues and EBIT than market consensus (Refinitiv) in Q3. However, ESL Shipping segment was slightly under our expectations in Q3. The steel, forest and construction industries have witnessed demand weakness which could affect to ESL Shipping volumes also in Q4 2023. Aspo could even sell two supramax vessels late 2023 we believe. Aspo downgraded its full year 2023 EBIT guidance midpoint by 8% but market consensus was already under the lower end of given guidance range why consensus EBIT for 2023 could be upgraded by EUR 1-2m we believe.
11/1/2023 8:38:13 AM - Aspo: Telko supported earnings - Evli - Aspo’s EUR 7.4m Q3 EBIT landed well above estimates. The positive surprise seems to have been driven by Telko. Aspo had to cut away the upper half of its previous guidance range as there are still market challenges in the form of soft demand.
10/26/2023 5:25:24 AM - Aspo: Volume outlook for shipping has not improved - Nordea - ESL Shipping volumes may have been weak in Q3. SSAB has already said that demand was weak in Q3 and the company guides for somewhat lower q/q shipments in Europe in Q4. Also, forest companies have suffered from poor demand and hence we are not overly optimistic about Aspo's H2 2023. Global demand for Supramaxes has improved recently, but we believe that Aspo may even lower the upper end of its EBIT guidance range of EUR 25-35m for 2023. Our new fair value range of EUR 7.3-8.9 (8.0-9.8) per share is based on equal weightings of our DCF, P/E and SOTP valuations. Marketing material commissioned by Aspo.
8/11/2023 6:47:17 AM - Aspo: Challenges cut EBIT for the year - Evli - Aspo’s outlook worsened this spring, and Q2 results fell below reduced estimates. ESL and Telko face their own issues, but the challenges are largely temporary in nature.
8/11/2023 5:15:15 AM - Aspo: Volumes are expected to improve in Q4 2023 - Nordea - Q2 2023 results were a bit weaker than consensus expected. ESL Shipping can reach a 15% EBIT margin in a favourable market environment (e.g. 2021-22) but the margin can drop as low as 7% in a weak environment. ESL Shipping witnessed this market weakness in Q2, and transport volumes for the steel and forest sectors could remain in the doldrums in Q3. Aspo kept its 2023 guidance intact and expects a recovery in Q4, but we still lower our full-year EBIT forecast to EUR 25m. Our new estimates lead to a fair value range of EUR 7.7-9.5 (8.0-9.8) per share, based on an equal weighting of our DCF, P/E and SOTP valuations. Marketing material commissioned by Aspo.
8/10/2023 7:34:28 AM - Aspo: Q2 below consensus, FY guidance unchanged - Nordea - The overall freight market activity slowed down significantly compared to the previous year in Q2. Weak spot market had a negative impact on the profitability of the ESL Shipping segment. Also Telko segment suffered from declining prices combined with soft end demand. Group level adjusted EBIT was EUR 2.7m (43%) below consensus (Refinitiv) in Q2.
8/10/2023 7:23:03 AM - Aspo: A challenging quarter - Evli - Aspo’s Q2 results fell short of estimates especially due to the loss-making Supramax vessels and certain other dry bulk market challenges, while Telko’s business suffered from declining prices.
8/3/2023 5:47:52 AM - Aspo: Headwind could continue in Q3 - Nordea - It is difficult to imagine Aspo posting any positive surprises in the near future. Weak markets led the company to downgrade its full-year guidance as recently as May. Shipping volumes in the steel and forest industries for 2023 could remain weaker than last year. In addition, international demand for Supramax vessels is poor. New hybrid vessels will begin arriving in late 2023, which could mean increased pressure on utilisation ratios. ESL Shipping might even adjust its older capacity in H2. Our medium-term estimates are largely unchanged, and thus we keep our fair value range of EUR 8.0-9.8 per share, based on an equal weighting of our DCF, P/E and SOTP valuations. Marketing material commissioned by Aspo.
5/17/2023 7:16:48 AM - Aspo: A cooling-off period for ESL - Evli - Q1 showed weakening for ESL this year, yet the guidance downgrade and recent Supramax comments indicate larger short-term headwinds than seen only a while back.
5/15/2023 5:27:56 AM - Aspo: Visibility for the second half of 2023 is weak - Nordea - The main reason for Aspo's 2023 EBIT guidance downgrade on 12 May was ESL Shipping, but the outlook is also challenging for the Telko and Leipurin segments. New EBIT guidance is EUR 25-35m for the full year, which is a relatively wide range. We downgrade our EBIT forecast for this year by 16%, to EUR 32m. The exit from Russia went better than anticipated but rising interest rates, inflation and economic uncertainty are taking their toll on the business operations. After updating our estimates, we calculate a new fair value range of EUR 8.0-9.8 (9.1-11.1) per share for Aspo, based on an equal weighting of our DCF, P/E and SOTP valuations. Marketing material commissioned by Aspo.
5/4/2023 8:06:14 AM - Aspo: Many avenues for long-term growth - Evli - Aspo’s Q1 results came in quite close to estimates. ESL’s outlook for the year has softened a bit more than we previously estimated, but new vessel investments should take the carrier to a whole new level in the coming years.
5/4/2023 5:36:57 AM - Aspo: Shipping volumes will be down in 2023 y/y - Nordea - Q1 revenues were 3% below Refinitiv consensus and clean EBIT was 7% below. Aspo kept its full-year 2023 guidance intact, but the outlook for the ESL Shipping segment in Q2-Q4 2023 is not very strong. Shipping volumes in the steel and forest industries could remain weaker than last year. However, with the Russia exit expected to be finalised by the end of Q2, we believe that P/E multiples should again exceed 10x. The next large transaction could be the divestment of supramax vessels or even a minority stake in the ESL Shipping segment. We calculate a new fair value range of EUR 9.1-11.1 (9.8-12.0) per share for Aspo, based on an equal weighting of our DCF, P/E and SOTP valuations. Marketing material commissioned by Aspo.
5/3/2023 8:26:40 AM - Aspo: Results slightly lower than estimated - Evli - Aspo’s Q1 results were a bit lower than estimated. We find there to have been mixed development underneath as Telko on the one hand beat our estimates while on the other ESL’s profitability softened more than we had estimated.
4/25/2023 5:21:52 AM - Aspo: Reshaping the company - Nordea - We expect a relatively good first quarter for ESL Shipping, due to increased q/q volumes, despite Finland's port strike and low yields in the shipping markets. Shipping volumes will likely improve further when new hybrid vessels start to arrive in late 2023. We maintain our fair value range of EUR 9.8-12.0 per share for Aspo, based on an equal weighting of our DCF, P/E and SOTP valuations. The company's EV/EBITDA was 8.8x on average in 2000-21, but is only 5.3x for 2022-24E. We expect the valuation to undergo a rerating after the divestment of the Russian operation is completed. Marketing material commissioned by Aspo.
2/16/2023 10:07:08 AM - Aspo: Some softening after a record year - Evli - Aspo’s Q4 didn’t hold big news, however the segments’ EBIT paths may diverge a bit this year after a very strong FY ’22.
2/16/2023 6:05:15 AM - Aspo: Hybrid vessels will start to arrive in late 2023 - Nordea - Q4 net sales came in 1% above our estimate, but clean EBIT was 7% below our expectation. The Telko segment was weaker than we had anticipated. Aspo says the shipping market is calming down, and thus its guidance also indicates a clear decline in operating profit in 2023 y/y. Our new forecast for revenue growth this year is -7%. We also expect clean EBIT to decline by 24% y/y in 2023. However, the company's outlook in the medium term looks good due to an order for 12 new hybrid coaster vessels. Profitability problems are more related to large Supramax vessels than coasters. We calculate a fair value range of EUR 9.8-12.0 per share for Aspo, based on an equal weighting of our DCF, P/E and SOTP valuations. Marketing material commissioned by Aspo.
2/15/2023 9:40:21 AM - Aspo: Clean EBIT could decline in 2023 y/y - Nordea - ESL Shipping segment was a positive surprise compared to our estimates in Q4, one reason being coal shipments during the quarter. However, demand and price levels have decreased in sea transportation markets. A strike in Finland in February could also be visible in shipping volumes in Q1 2023. Because the dry bulk market is facing increasing headwinds in 2023 we forecast market consensus for 2023 clean EBIT to be downgraded by 8%. Reported net sales in a group level will most likely decline in 2023 y/y also due to lower prices and divestments in Telko segment. <br>Dividend proposal is EUR 0.46 (consensus EUR 0.46).
2/15/2023 8:36:36 AM - Aspo: Relatively near estimates - Evli - Aspo’s Q4 results landed relatively close to estimates. ESL once again produced very high profitability, and outlook continues to be strong, while Telko’s profitability has decreased considerably after H1’22.
2/13/2023 7:04:30 AM - Aspo: Difficult to improve further in 2023 - Nordea - Last year was very good for Aspo despite the Russia exit, in our view. One bigger and two smaller acquisitions will support net sales after the Russia divestments. We expect Aspo to reach as much as EUR 56m in clean operating profit in 2022. However, yields in the shipping sector have collapsed, and we therefore forecast declining net sales and EBIT in 2023. Thus, EBIT guidance for 2023 might be below EUR 56m, we believe. New hybrid ships could support cargo tonnes in 2024, but not yet this year. We calculate a fair value range of EUR 9.8-12.0 (10.2-12.5) per share for Aspo, based on an equal weighting of our DCF, P/E and SOTP valuations. Marketing material commissioned by Aspo.
11/3/2022 6:54:13 AM - Aspo: High results even without Russia - Evli - Aspo achieved again very high profitability, this time even with Russia mostly neutralized. This year makes for tough comparison figures, but valuation isn’t that demanding.
11/3/2022 6:15:31 AM - Aspo: Strong shipping market is calming down - Nordea - Q3 net sales were 11% above Refinitiv consensus. A strong shipping market, raw material prices and acquisitions supported sales growth. Clean EBIT is on track for a record high in 2022E, which will make it hard to improve further in 2023E y/y. The Russian exit could prove easier than feared. The development in the shipping market will be critical to operating profit next year, but favourable yields in the shipping market have deteriorated recently. We calculate a fair value range of EUR 10.2-12.5 per share for Aspo, based on an equal weighting of our DCF, P/E and SOTP valuations. Marketing material commissioned by Aspo.
11/2/2022 8:56:36 AM - Aspo: Strong Q3, full year guidance unchanged - Nordea - Revenues were 11% above Refinitiv consensus in Q3. Clean operating profit of EUR 13m was EUR 2.7m above market consensus in Q3. We believe a part of good development could have come from favourable official EUR/RUB exchange rate. But ESL Shipping reported a very strong result in Q3. However, fuel prices have increased, spot market rates softened and end demand weakening in Q4. Full year guidance was unchanged (already upgraded in October) and the company still feels very confident about full-year performance in 2022. But further improvement could be challenging in next year and we already expect a lower clean EBIT for 2023 y/y. Negative one-off items will be close to EUR 25m in 2022. The majority of these extra costs and write downs are related to Russia exit. Overall, the company looks to survive relatively well from its Russia exit - at least better than feared in the spring 2022.
11/2/2022 8:17:45 AM - Aspo: Another strong quarter - Evli - Aspo’s Q3 results topped estimates. In our view the beat was driven by ESL, where Q3 was again a very strong quarter.
10/18/2022 7:23:35 AM - Aspo: ESL supports high profitability - Evli - Aspo upgraded its FY ‘22 guidance, thanks to ESL’s continued strong performance, and gave an update on exits. We continue to see FY ’23 EBIT well above EUR 40m.
10/17/2022 7:53:01 AM - Aspo: New FY clean EBIT guidance is EUR 52-57m - Nordea - Aspo sold its Telko Segment’s Russian operations for EUR 9.5m. The company also upgraded FY 2022 one-off cost forecast by EUR 5.5m. New group level clean EBIT guidance for this year is EUR 52-57m (Nordea EUR 51m). The development of Aspo’s ESL Shipping Segment has been good in 2022. However, the Baltic Dry Index was down by 35% in Q3 q/q. Shipping market has lost a part of its strength but Aspo’s ESL Shipping Segment will still report ~30% better clean EBIT in 2022 y/y we forecast. The Baltic Dry index is now 9% lower than 2021-22 average, so it could be difficult for ESL Shipping to improve further in 2023. ESL Shipping represent 2/3 from group level clean EBIT we calculate.
8/11/2022 6:59:29 AM - Aspo: Earnings to remain relatively high - Evli - Aspo’s record high H1 results are to face headwinds in H2, but in our view EBIT may well stay above EUR 40m also next year thanks to ESL and developments in Leipurin.
8/11/2022 5:50:02 AM - Aspo: Strong outlook for 2022 - Nordea - The last two quarters have been the best ever in terms of clean EBIT, despite all the problems in Eastern markets. A favourable shipping market and a tight situation in the plastic and chemical sectors were the main reasons for the strong results in Q2. Management is confident about its 2022 performance, and a Russian exit could prove easier for Aspo than previously feared. Telko might not be able to keep up its strong performance, however, when excluding the effects of pricing and FX in Russia. A new business model for ESL Shipping, an exit from Russia and a potential acquisition by Telko could also heavily alter consensus estimates for H2 2022. We calculate a new fair value range of EUR 10.2-12.5 (9.6-11.7) per share for Aspo, based on an equal weighting of our DCF, P/E and SOTP valuations. Marketing material commissioned by Aspo.
8/10/2022 8:35:26 AM - Aspo: Another record EBIT - Evli - Aspo’s Q2 results were broadly higher than expected as all three segments reached record-high quarterly profitability levels. ESL’s H2 looks to remain strong, while Telko needs to manage with decreasing top line due to the exit from Russia.
8/10/2022 8:31:26 AM - Aspo: Good Q2 result, FY guidance unchanged - Nordea - Net sales were 11% above our expectations meanwhile clean EBIT came 33% over our forecast in Q2. Full year guidance was unchanged and the company feels very confident about full-year performance in 2022. One-off items were EUR -7.3m in H1 2022. Negative one-off items will be EUR 15-20m in FY 2022 according to the guidance. Majority of extra costs and write downs are related to Russia exit. Telko and Leipurin segments are still exploring options to make Russia exit and no new information regarding a possible divestment price available. Overall, the company looks to survive relatively well from its Russia exit - at least better than feared in the spring 2022. Replacing revenue for Leipurin segment is coming from Kobia acquisition. Aspo is also looking for suitable acquisition opportunities in Telko Segment.
8/8/2022 5:55:32 AM - Aspo: Russian exit could reduce net sales by ~20% - Nordea - We raise our full-year group clean EBIT forecast by ~50%. Previously, we expected the Telko segment to be loss-making in H2 2022 due to operational problems in Russia. Our new H2 2022 forecast for Telko's clean EBIT margin is 4%, but we also add EUR 15m in Russia-related costs to Q2 2022E as a one-off item related to Telko's problems in H2 2022E. We now calculate a fair value range of EUR 9.6-11.7 (9.0-11.2) per share for Aspo, based on an equal weighting of our DCF, P/E and SOTP valuations. Aspo could sell its Russian operations (~20% of sales) in H2 2022, leading to an upgrade for accepted valuation multiples. The company's P/E is currently 7x for 2023E, but we believe it could be more than 10x following an exit from Russia. The company will release its Q2 report on 10 August. Marketing material commissioned by Aspo.
6/16/2022 6:49:14 AM - Aspo: Outlook remains solid despite exits - Evli - Aspo’s guidance upgrade arrived sooner than we expected.
5/5/2022 10:30:18 AM - Aspo: Telko’s value is overlooked - Evli - Aspo’s Q1 results beat estimates. Uncertainty persists around H2, but we are now more confident towards Telko.
5/5/2022 5:40:53 AM - Aspo: A year of great changes - Nordea - Aspo actively continues its investigation into strategic alternatives for its operations in Russia, but we expect the outcome to be Aspo exiting Russia without meaningful financial compensation. We also forecast net sales down this year and also next y/y. Aspo's most recent guidance indicates EUR 27-34m in clean EBIT for 2022, while our new estimate is 4% below the guidance midpoint. With the phasing-out of Russia operations, ESL Shipping will increase its relative importance in the group. Acquisitions to ramp up net sales are possible in the future but we do not yet include these in our estimates. After adjusting our estimates, we calculate a fair value range of EUR 9.0-11.2 (9.9-12.2) per Aspo share, equally weighting our DCF, P/E and SOTP valuations. Marketing material commissioned by Aspo.
5/4/2022 8:31:05 AM - Aspo: Q1 profitability remained high - Evli - Aspo’s Q1 results clearly topped estimates, however the previous full-year guidance is retained for now as much uncertainty persists around Telko’s H2.
5/4/2022 8:26:52 AM - Aspo: Russian operations under strategic review - Nordea - Net sales were 17% above consensus in Q1. Comparable operating profit was even 82% above market (Infront) consensus in Q1. The company booked EUR 4.9m net write downs and other one-offs for Q1 result mainly due to crisis in Ukraine. A very strong performance in Q1 was related to Telko and ESL Shipping segments. ESL reported even a 14% EBIT margin Q1. Net sales in Telko segment was significantly affected by the increase in prices which also supported sales margins. However, the guidance midpoint for 2022 clean EBIT is still EUR 30.5m regardless Q1 EBIT is already 49% from FY guidance midpoint. Aspo’s ability to continue its operations in Russia has deteriorated and the company is investigating strategic alternatives for Telko’s operations in Russia. Leipurin segment will also investigate strategic alternatives, including the possible divestment of these businesses. Around 25% of Aspo’s net sales are currently coming from Russia, Ukraine and other CIS countries.
4/7/2022 6:43:05 AM - Aspo: ESL continues to support EBIT - Evli - Aspo resumed guidance relatively fast due to ESL’s current strong positioning, however much uncertainty remains around Telko’s performance in the coming few quarters.
4/7/2022 6:41:44 AM - Aspo: No total exit from Russia yet - Nordea - A strong shipping market could have led Aspo to post a record year of earnings in 2022, but the Ukraine crisis changed the investment story. Around 26% of annual net sales are from Russia, Ukraine and other CIS countries. The most recent guidance indicates EUR 27-34m clean EBIT for 2022, which is not bad considering the current market environment, but valuation multiples could remain modest as long as Aspo maintains business in Russia. It has invested a lot in the country and a total exit could be a painful decision. After downgrading our estimates, we calculate a fair value range of EUR 9.9-12.2 (11.6-14.3) per share, equally weighting our DCF, P/E and SOTP valuations. Marketing material commissioned by Aspo.
3/4/2022 7:37:37 AM - Aspo: Valuation leaves Telko very cheap - Evli - The war raises questions around Telko and Leipurin, but we view the recent sell-off a bit overdone despite the risks.
2/17/2022 9:50:37 AM - Aspo: High and resilient EBIT - Evli - Aspo’s Q4 adj. EBIT reached EUR 13.9m; we believe ESL’s and Telko’s results are resilient while the guidance doesn’t appear to set the bar very high either for H1 or H2.
2/17/2022 9:48:07 AM - Aspo: Guidance for flat EBIT in 2022 - Nordea - A particularly good shipping market was the main reason for Aspo's clear EBIT beat versus market consensus (Infront) in Q4. Full-year guidance indicates flat growth in comparable EBIT, although still some 5% above consensus (Refinitiv). Given median EV/EBIT of 14.7x over the past 22 years, EV/EBIT of 10.7x for 2022E does not appear high. However, risks related to Russia and Ukraine could weigh on the valuation multiples the market accepts for Aspo. After adjusting our estimates, we calculate a fair value range of EUR 11.6-14.3 (11.2-13.8) per share, equally weighting our DCF, P/E and SOTP valuations. Marketing material commissioned by Aspo.
2/16/2022 1:23:40 PM - Aspo: Good Q4 result, clean EBIT for 2022 is guided same y/y - Nordea - Net sales was 8% above consensus (Infront) in Q4. Clean operating profit was very good in Q4 due to ESL Shipping segment. The profitability of all vessel categories was historically strong in Q4. Clean EBIT in Leipurin and Telko segments were close to our expectations. Aspo has booked EUR 8.5m write downs and other one-offs for 2021 result which could be related to a new strategy and changes in the management team. Russia, Ukraine and other CIS countries were 27% from net sales 2021 which could weigh on the valuation multiples that the market accepts for the company. Full year guidance for clean EBIT 2022 was 5.5% over market consensus. The company’s dividend proposal is EUR 0.23+0.22 (consensus EUR 0.44).
2/16/2022 1:20:21 PM - Aspo: ESL Q4 EBIT tops estimates - Evli - Aspo’s headline EUR 8.8m Q4 EBIT missed estimates, however the shortfall stemmed from Leipurin’s EUR 4.3m impairment loss. Telko’s EBIT was a bit soft relative to what we expected, but ESL topped our estimate by a considerable margin.
12/2/2021 8:01:53 AM - Aspo: CMD notes - Evli - Aspo held its CMD, where the key message was that focus is more towards add-on M&amp;A as opposed to exits (except for the sale of Kauko and Leipurin’s Vulganus machines).
12/2/2021 6:49:08 AM - Aspo: Sales growth set as a focus area - Nordea - At its CMD event on 1 December, Aspo kept its 2021 EBIT guidance unchanged but upgraded its long-term EBIT margin guidance to 8% (6% previously). A sales growth target, which has been missing from guidance, was also introduced at 5-10%. Small acquisitions will be used to support revenue growth in Telko. Aspo is also seeking a new business segment that can offer an organic growth platform in the long term. Based on our estimates, we calculate a fair value range of EUR 11.2-13.8 per share based on equally weighted DCF, P/E and SOTP valuations. Marketing material commissioned by Aspo.
12/1/2021 8:51:54 AM - Aspo: New long-term EBIT margin target is 8% - Nordea - Aspo holds a CMD event today. Its new long-term operating profit target is 8% (previously 6%).<br>The company’s ROE target (&gt;20%) and gearing target (&lt;130%) were unchanged. Leipurin<br>machine operations (Vulganus) and Kauko business could be sold in near future. Dividend policy remains unchanged. New long term annual sales growth target is 5-10%. The company’s full year 2021 EBIT guidance is still EUR 30-36m (unchanged). Annual EPS could be EUR 1.20, if the company is able to reach its financial targets according to our analysis. Consensus EPS for 2021 is EUR 0.89. We have a fair value range of EUR 11.2-13.8 for the share.
10/28/2021 7:41:54 AM - Aspo: EBIT is headed above EUR 40m - Evli - Aspo’s Q3 EBIT was EUR 12.8m without the one-offs. Valuation is still not very high as we see scope for well above EUR 40m EBIT next year, but we consider multiples neutral. Our TP is EUR 14.0 (12.5), rating HOLD (BUY).
10/28/2021 7:23:22 AM - Aspo: Full-year guidance upgraded by 10% - Nordea - Aspo's updated clean EBIT guidance is not challenging – the company should easily reach the upper end (EUR 39m) of the new range. We expect a good performance thanks to the strong shipping market. Telko has also improved, but Leipurin continues to struggle with low profitability. Company-specific risks are coming down, its debt-handling capacity is solid, and gearing is nearing the target range of 130%. Based on our new estimates, we calculate a fair value range of EUR 11.2-13.8 (10.3-12.7) per share by equally weighting our DCF, P/E and SOTP valuations. Marketing material commissioned by Aspo.
10/27/2021 8:52:43 AM - Aspo: Good result, clean EBIT guidance upgrade - Nordea - Net sales was 4% above consensus in Q3. Operating profit, without EUR 3.4m goodwill write down, was even 25% above market (Infront) consensus in Q3. A good result was related to ESL Shipping and Telko segments. But even Leipurin segment reported better EBIT in Q3 than we expected. Clean EBIT guidance midpoint 2021 was upgraded by 10%. Telko has acquired Mentum which is an Estonian lubricant distributor. The acquisition will increase Telko’s sales by EUR 10m (4%), transaction price was not disclosed. Considering the trend in recent years, the cargo prices of large vessels are now at a high level why we expect good profitability to continue in Q4.
10/27/2021 7:28:00 AM - Aspo: Very strong underlying performance - Evli - Aspo’s headline EUR 7.6m Q3 EBIT didn’t meet estimates, but the figure includes a EUR 3.4m Kauko impairment loss. Both ESL and Telko recorded new profitability highs.
10/25/2021 1:49:01 PM - Aspo: A very strong shipping market - Nordea - The market environment has been favourable for Aspo and the outlook for H2 2021 is strong. Aspo will publish its third quarter 2021 results on Wednesday, 27 October at 9:30 a.m. (EET). For Q3, we are 1% ahead of Infront consensus on net sales and 3% ahead on adjusted EBIT. A very strong shipping market should have favoured ESL Shipping segment in Q3. We model EUR 9.1m EBIT for ESL-Shipping in Q3, while our revenue growth forecast is 44% y/y for the segment. In addition to the dry bulk rates, high plastic prices should support Telko segment. Telko operates as an intermediary and could have benefited from increasing plastic prices through inventory effect. For Telko segment, we model 14% y/y sales growth with improving EBIT of EUR 5.1m (EUR 4.2m a year ago) in Q3. Overall, we forecast a 90% y/y improvement for operating profit this year.
8/12/2021 6:36:17 AM - Aspo: Some more results to be accrued - Evli - Aspo’s Q2 group-level EBIT was known before the report. We make minor upward revisions to our estimates, and we see Aspo on a firm track towards full profitability potential.
8/12/2021 5:41:27 AM - Aspo: Good market environment should continue - Nordea - Q2 operating profit and full-year guidance were already pre-announced, eliminating any major excitement from the earnings report on 11 August, but the market environment has been favourable for Aspo and the outlook for H2 2021 is strong. The shipping market has been healthy and the Telko segment improved significantly, hence we forecast a 90% y/y improvement for operating profit this year. After a few challenging years, Aspo is finally reaching its potential within its ESL Shipping and Telko segments. The Leipurin segment has not yet recovered from the pandemic but it should be able to reach EUR 4m annual operating profit in a positive scenario. Based on our new estimates, we calculate a fair value range of EUR 10.3-12.7 (9.7-12.0) per share. Marketing material commissioned by Aspo.
8/11/2021 7:32:07 AM - Aspo: Expects strong market situation to continue - Nordea - In line with pre-released figures, Aspo reported Q2 EBIT of EUR 9.6m. Net sales amounted to EUR 143m, 6% above Infront consensus. Cargo market returned to nearly normal level during Q2. Demand for Telko’s products was at a good level in all markets, while volume development was hindered by availability in certain product categories. Improved availability towards end of the quarter has caused some categories price levels to decrease. The outlook for a cargo market remains favourable and the company expects significantly higher transportation volumes y/y in H2. Operating cash flow stood at EUR 15.6m in Q2 (EUR 16.6m a year ago). The company reiterated its full year guidance (upgraded on 4 August) and expects EBIT to be EUR 30-36m in 2021 (from EUR 19.3m in 2020). For 2021, pre-Q2 Infront consensus has already been expecting operating profit of EUR 35m.
8/11/2021 7:27:57 AM - Aspo: A record Q2 profitability - Evli - Aspo released preliminary information regarding Q2 results already last week and so the Q2 report was no news event in terms of group-level EBIT. Telko’s profitability was higher than we expected.
8/5/2021 9:32:45 AM - Aspo: Strong Q2 shipping market - Nordea - A very good demand environment has led Aspo to upgrade its 2021 EBIT guidance to EUR 30-36m, the midpoint being 6.5% above market (Refinitiv) consensus. The company's EPS declined in 2018-20, but the tone has clearly changed and Aspo is fulfilling its earnings capability for the first time since the AtoB@C acquisition. We upgrade our 2021 EBIT forecast by 9%, putting our estimate (EUR 35m) close to the upper end of the guidance. Based on our new estimates, we calculate a fair value range of EUR 9.7-12.0 (9.0-11.2) per share. Marketing material commissioned by Aspo.
8/5/2021 8:29:14 AM - Aspo: Sailing towards EUR 40m EBIT - Evli Research - Aspo now guides EUR 30-36m in FY ’21 EBIT
5/6/2021 6:30:43 AM - Aspo: Long-term EBIT potential solidifies - Evli Research - Aspo already reached 6% long-term EBIT target in Q1
5/6/2021 6:26:23 AM - Aspo: Reaching its full potential - Nordea - After two challenging years, Aspo is finally reaching its potential within its ESL Shipping and Telko segments. Q1 operating profit was a whole 28% above Infront consensus. The Leipurin segment has not yet recovered from the pandemic and full-year EBIT guidance looks modest, but our EBIT forecast for this year is 64% above last year's level; thus, we believe that Aspo will upgrade its guidance this summer. Company-specific risks are coming down, its debt-handling capacity is good, and gearing is nearing the target range of 130%. Based on our new estimates, we calculate a fair value range of EUR 9.0-11.2 (8.0-10.0) per share. Marketing material commissioned by Aspo.
5/5/2021 8:40:26 AM - Aspo: Strong Q1 driven by ESL Shipping and Telko - Nordea - Aspo reported Q1 EBIT of EUR 7.9m, +28% / +25% versus Infront consensus / Nordea estimates, respectively. Net sales amounted to EUR 132m, fairly in line with expectations. Cargo market continued to recover in Q1. Telko benefited from increasing plastic prices, while there has been some issues with availability of plastics in the market. The outlook for a cargo market appears favourable with dry bulk indices gaining momentum which usually have a positive impact on the profitability of Supramax vessels. Operating cash flow stood at EUR 6.6m in Q1 (EUR 13.9m a year ago) with EUR -7.2m working capital impact. The company reiterated its full year guidance and expects EBIT to improve in 2021 y/y (from EUR 19.3m in 2020). For 2021, consensus has already been expecting operating profit of EUR 29m.
5/5/2021 7:50:14 AM - Aspo: Profitability far above estimates - Evli - Aspo’s Q1 profitability was a clear positive surprise relative to estimates. EBIT reached a record high and both ESL and Telko topped our expectations.
5/3/2021 8:51:24 AM - Aspo: Dry bulk indices at strong levels - Nordea - Aspo will publish its first quarter 2021 results on Wednesday, 5 May at 10 a.m. (EET). For Q1, we are 2% ahead of Infront consensus on net sales and adjusted EBIT.
2/12/2021 8:44:23 AM - Aspo: Sailing towards open waters - Nordea - Aspo's Q4 beat expectations, with a strong ESL Shipping recovery. Aspo finished an exceptional year with a strong performance and positive outlook, as customer activity seems to be picking up both in ESL Shipping and Telko. Aspo issued positive full-year guidance for 2021, while we expect it to reach its 6% EBIT margin target in 2022 – a year ahead of plan. Debt remains high, but solid cash flow should ensure deleveraging in the absence of major investments in the coming years. On our new estimates, we calculate a fair value range of EUR 8.0-10.0 (7.1-9.0) per share.
2/12/2021 7:58:42 AM - Aspo: Performance is now appreciated - Evli Research - ESL helped Aspo Q4 EBIT top estimates. Both ESL and Telko now perform, but we see valuation already appreciates this fact. Our TP is now EUR 9.5 (8.75), rating HOLD (BUY).
2/11/2021 8:39:38 AM - Aspo: ESL drove a sharp rebound - Evli Research - Aspo’s Q4 EBIT topped estimates thanks to ESL’s strong profitability. It is clear EBIT is set to improve this year, however Aspo did not disclose numerical EBIT guidance range.
12/14/2020 2:32:47 PM - Aspo: Recovery proceeding faster than anticipated - Nordea - Aspo upgraded its full-year guidance on 9 December and now expects 2020 EBIT of EUR 18-20m (previously EUR 14-16m). Although our EBIT forecast was already above the previous guidance range, the dry bulk market recovery appears to be stronger than we or the company had expected. Furthermore, Telko's continued earnings growth also creates confidence about the sustainability of the profit improvement. Overall, the 2021 outlook remains positive and we continue to forecast a clear improvement in operating profit next year. Aspo should reach its financial targets ahead of schedule in 2022, we believe. Based on our new estimates, we calculate a fair value range of EUR 7.1-9.0 (6.8-8.6) per share.
12/10/2020 1:27:09 PM - Aspo: Sailing towards EUR 30m EBIT- Evli Research - We raise our total Q4’20 EBIT estimate by EUR 2.9m
12/2/2020 8:41:13 AM - Aspo: CMD notes - Evli Research - ESL’s long-term 12% EBIT margin potential is still there
10/30/2020 9:02:09 AM - Aspo: Outlook for ESL Shipping has clearly improved - Nordea - Clean operating profit in Q3 was better than consensus expected and momentum is turning positive after the weak summer. Aspo has thus lifted its 2020 EBIT guidance midpoint by EUR 1m (7%). We also upgrade our EBIT forecast for this year, by EUR 2.3m, and next year we expect to see a clear EBIT improvement y/y due to ESL Shipping and Telko.
10/30/2020 8:41:24 AM - Aspo: Upside still more likely - Evli Research - Telko delivered another earnings surprise in a row
9/15/2020 7:33:30 AM - Aspo: Focus remains on 2021 despite guidance for 2020 - Nordea - Aspo has reinstated its guidance for 2020 and now expects EBIT of EUR 12-16m. Visibility for the rest of the year has improved, while COVID-19 and related restrictions keep the guidance range wide. The company has been able to maintain strong cash flow during unprecedented times and thus we do not anticipate any major problems from the stretched balance sheet. Telko's profitability improvement seems imminent and sustainable, though ESL Shipping will still be loss-making in Q3. We now forecast 2020 EBIT of EUR 14.7m while we expect a clear improvement in 2021, driven mainly by ESL Shipping. However, we acknowledge the considerable uncertainty in the shipping market, the Russian economy and wider consumer confidence
9/15/2020 7:27:28 AM - Aspo: Improvement ahead in Q4 - Evli Research - Q4 will mark the beginning of profitability rebound
8/17/2020 9:37:55 AM - Aspo: Focus shifting to next year soon - Nordea - Q2 2020 was not easy for Aspo and Q3 could be worse. There is no fast recovery in sight for Q4 2020 either, but cost savings should secure decent profitability in the short term.
8/13/2020 7:12:15 AM - Aspo: Navigation is still challenging - Evli Research - Some beacons of light but still surrounded by thick fog
5/6/2020 8:06:23 AM - Aspo: Improvement outlook unclear – Evli Research - Aspo: Improvement outlook unclear – Evli Research
5/5/2020 10:06:31 AM - Aspo: Q2 will be weaker – Evli Research - Aspo: Q2 will be weaker – Evli Research
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